Thesis: The first 1000 year old human has DEFINITELY been born already, even if we assume a slow rate of medical progress

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Hello everyone, I am a premed student, but I am planning to switch to pursuing aging research. I sincerely believe that the first 1000 year is VERY VERY likely alive today, and I will present some reasoning for why I believe this to be the case. This should no longer be considered something “radical” to say, and I have brazenly talked about this to many professors. Even assuming a tiny ‘baby’ rate of progress, the first immortal human has been born.

  1. Think about the cohort of babies born this year in 2020 (~100 million babies). Jean Caulment was the oldest person we know of, who died at age 122, and we know of a few who lived to 118, 117, 116, and plenty more who lived over 110. Going back to the babies, we know that there will be some sub-cohort of these babies who makes it over the age of 110. Out of these babies, even from non-longevity based medical advancements we are seeing, there will probably be a few who actually breach the record of 122. Assuming LITERALLY NOTHING advances in the next 122 years, they will have until 2142 to reach longevity escape velocity (LEV, which is the point at which scientific advancements increase the human lifespan by more than 1 year per year), a full CENTURY away from ray kurzweils predictions for when the singularity will happen.
  2. In my view the first senolytics (which are coming VERY SOON) will increase human lifespan by atleast 15%, and this even further solidifies that longevity escape velocity is close. In 2018, nature published a study where the clearance of senescent cells with dasatinib and quercetin increased the lifespan of mice by 38% (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-018-0092-9). Senolytics ARE NOT calorie restriction mimetics like resveratrol or NMN (which don’t have anywhere near the same effect in humans as in mice), so I believe that with humans we may very well also get a 38% increase in lifespan with senolytics. “Even if the increase is not proportional, it will probably be considerably closer to proportional” – Aubrey de grey in an interview when asked about senolytics.

So, going back to the babies, if those babies born this year get senolytics (which is definitely coming), there’s a decent shot they can perhaps live to 140, which would allow them until fucking 2162 to reach LEV. Some lucky bastards are definitely amongst us.

submitted by /u/Ellipsic
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