How quickly will AGI grow after it’s conception? What research shows that it’s ACTUALLY possible by 2050?

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I am very curious on the leading companies and groups that are contributing to AI. What REALLY makes professionals believe that its possible by 2050 or sooner? Where are the real steps that have been taken? How can we know that the year 2050 wasn’t just pulled out of the back to create excitement? When it is concepted theoretically how quickly will it learn? People say keeping it away from the Internet is a must, but if I’m understanding this correctly, in theory this AGI should be able to learn anything regardless of human interaction. – Thanks

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